Modern vehicles come in two different transmission types – automatic or manual. With most cars these days being automatic, let’s investigate the fate of manual cars.
The decision between automatic and manual cars depends on the basic economic principles of demand, supply, and opportunity costs. As we walk through life, the world and our needs constantly change.
With automatic transmission, a torque converter is needed, between the engine and the gearbox, to provide smooth gear changing, efficiency, and to protect components from damage. However, the torque converter draws a minimum of 15% of power from the engine to function, therefore, requiring more fuel. After the Global Oil Crisis, car manufacturers were focused on producing fuel economical cars, resulting in car manufacturers choosing to produce less automatic cars.
This led to a decrease in interest in automatic cars among the mass market during 1970s and 1980s, like the rare 1982-1985 second generation Honda Accord Hondamatic.
From the mid-1980s and 1990s, car manufacturers started to increase the production of automatic cars. Gen X (1965-1980) saw more automatic cars offered, like the third generation 1986-1989 Honda Accord Hondamatic. However, due to the higher price of automatic cars compared to their manual counterparts, Gen X were deterred from buying them.
For the millennial (1981-1996) and Gen Z (1997-2012) generations, automatic cars were already common by the 2000s. With economies of scale, manufacturers were able to offer more affordable and competitive prices, against manual cars.
The Singapore Police Force’s 2022 annual report shows that there were 1,795,715 Class 3 (manual) and 235,777 Class 3A (automatic) qualified licence holders. All Classes saw an increase in numbers, year-by-year from 2013 to 2023.While there are no statistics for the take-up rate for manual cars in Singapore, in Europe, , there is a drop from 78% in 2017 to 32% in 2023 (source: motor1com).
For Singaporeans to buy a car, besides costs, other considerations include:
1) Singapore’s city driving condition
a) Automatic cars are easier to control, especially in heavy traffic.
b) Manoeuvring in tight roads and parking bays, an auto car allows
the driver to focus, and not worry about clutch control.
2) Economics
a) A manual car is often more fuel-efficient compared to its identical
automatic counterpart, by 5% to 15% (Source: Budget Direct Insurance).
However, with newer auto-transmission systems like Continuous Variable
Transmission (CVT), additional gears, and less reliance on
torque converters, some newer cars promise better fuel economy
(Source: Vehicle Technologies Office Home, USA).
b) Traditionally, manual cars are cheaper to buy. However, most new manual
cars offered and sold are increasingly from the performance model range.
3) Personal Preferences
a) If having a car is a necessity for your lifestyle, you might find owning an
automatic car easier. Not having to shift gears or use a clutch pedal will
make your daily drives to work; weekly errands; and family outings, much
easier and less stressful. Additionally, most new models have in-build AI
passive safety features to help anticipate unsafe situations in addition to
your own judgement, making drives a lot safer.
b) If the car is not just a mode of transport but for leisure, for a car
enthusiast, driving a manual will make the experience a lot more fun. You
are able to manually rev-match, engine brake, control launch, and other
fun bits that you can manipulate, enhancing your interaction with the car
and the road. However, do note that it requires more knowledge and focus
in handling the car in all conditions.
The Future of Manual Driving
Are manual drivers the better driver? That is subjective because after all, it is not the car, but the driver! So, who would still want to drive manual cars?
Younger generation drivers are being exposed to manual driving through realistic arcade driving simulators.
Reports from Western countries indicate that there is a growing interest in buying manual cars by Millennial and Z generations. Perhaps this comes from having discovered the joys of manual driving through racing games, driving simulators, and popular car-related movies and anime. These experiences glorify and influence car culture, bringing back past trends into the future. Based on Singapore’s current goals of Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) by 2030 (Source: Ministry of Transport, Press Release 19th November 2022), may see the demise of manual cars as all EV, at the moment, come only with automatic transmissions.
Based on motor1.com, only 1.7% of manual cars were sold in the US in 2023. Is time running out to buy a new manual car in Singapore? Locally, if you wish to buy a new manual car, your choice may be limited, as manufacturers are offering mostly performance models. Some examples include the Toyota GR Yaris, BMW M4 Coupe, and Suzuki Swift Sports. So, for new Class 3 licence holders and manual car enthusiasts, who want to buy a manual car, they have to look at the used car market for possible future classic and class cars.
Just like the revival of old-school vinyl records, will the manual car share the same fate? Appreciated and kept only by nostalgic and sentimental car enthusiasts as a novelty? Or, will the demand for manual cars drive up prices for new, classic, and future classic cars? Only time will tell.
